I've missed a few things the past week. First, let's celebrate missing the $1.99 title of a post to celebrate gas prices coming down. The local Costco stands at $1.97 and some others are even lower. Isn't it great when gas prices are low so that people have more money to spend on their own needs? Ah, the freedom to buy gas and go on a road trip, or direct funds your own way. Having the extra money is freedom to make decisions at the family level -- very nice.
The second miss: I did see TV spots in the last few days of the election that did raise questions about (then) Senator Obama's relationship with Reverend Jeremiah Wright. I am not a big TV watcher, and I saw it once or twice. I was willing to link to the youtube version I had seen, but I couldn't find it there -- instead, I managed to find several other versions. It seems other parts of the country likely got more doses on their TVs -- I guess that's what I get for living in a state with relatively low (13) electoral votes! I should be happy.
OK, the third miss has me very confused. Barack Obama's historic election has a lot of exciting hope behind it. I'm more cautious than euphoric. The large list of promises made now need decisive action behind them to deliver solutions. I can campaign on words as well, but if there isn't action behind them, then it's rather hollow. With the euphoria and Congress aligned, Obama should have little problem moving ahead the agenda he proposed. Yesterday's business section of the Washington Post asked "Can He Do It?"
The other highlight from the Sunday Post biz section I usually enjoy is Michelle Singletary's column The Color of Money which often has some good insights to personal finance. Ms. Singletary's practical approach to personal finance (spend less than you earn, cautious with debt, living in your means) are all things that I embrace as well. This past Sunday she disappointed me as she seemed to pin personal hopes on an Obama presidency. An excerpt:
As an African American mother of three children, I've been sporadically crying ever since Election night. When I tell my children they can work hard and aspire to any job in this country, that statement is finally, finally true.
The newspapers have had numerous photos of tears flowing after this historic election. If, for the reason of positive progress that has occurred in the civil rights movement in the last 50 years, then celebrating with tears of joy may be a worthy style of celebration. If, for the reason that Barack Obama is being seen as a "messiah" of sorts that will remedy all ills in the world, then I'm saddened that people have that perception. Obama has made big promises and I hope he delivers some and fails at others.
Secondly, I hope that Ms. Singletary's column just reads this way and truly doesn't mean it -- does she really only think that only now her encouraging words to her children saying that they can aspire to any job in this country -- is that true only now? I hope she doesn't feel that she's been lying to her children for several years now only because of an election. A historic election in many ways -- but did the Singletary children only have room to celebrate success because of a Barack Obama presidency? I hope they don't have their hopes and dreams pinned on one man either -- I hope they chart their own course.
Again, maybe I missed it.
Ms. Singletary finally highlights some economic differences along racial lines. She builds a case to say that the playing field in America is not level. Perhaps in some ways it isn't, however my senses tell me that politicians don't hold the answers. If the color of a politicians skin resulted in his abilities to fully empower any group he chose, I think the inner cities would be booming in wealth, success, low crime, high education and many of the things Ms. Singletary recognizes that people need. Politicians would not withhold that from the citizens in their districts, wards, or regions that they serve.
As I live in a suburb of Washington, DC I would expect the 'District' to have it all fixed if this was the case. I think District politicians stand up for their citizens -- but it still means there are many problems. Politicians are not going to solve it. There are no public office messiahs.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Thursday, November 6, 2008
"Just Like Bush"
This phrase was mentioned to me a couple times as the reason why President-elect Obama reached that status on November 5, 2008. I don't think that's really the reason, but it's partially in the back of many voters minds as they went to the polls to cast their ballots. I also don't know that voters consider what I'm going to call the 'Campaign Iceberg Effect' -- and this has nothing to do with governors from Alaska.
The primary reason is the economy. Exit polling suggested 63% had the economy as their highest concern. Sure, the war in Iraq is making huge progress (due to the surge of troops most likely. I doubt the insurrectionists have totally given up; history shows they'll fight decades if needed for an issue). So, Iraq is not a headline -- the media has removed it from their talking points. Anne Kornblut I believe got it right in her Washingon Post article here Measured Response to Financial Crisis Sealed the Election. Ms. Kornblut highlights that as candidate Obama met with his team Sept 14th looking for more ideas, the race was tight. The next morning, Lehman Brothers (LEH), filed for bankruptcy. The S&P 500 index was down about 12% at that point on the year (to the previous Friday, September 12th). Suddenly, the S&P fell apart (along with near all other equities) and went down another 22% from Sept 15 to November 3. It was up from a few days before when it did reach a point of -33% from Sept 15 to Oct 27.
The economy was a great concern on election day. Painting John McCain as one that would contribute George Bush's policies was good enough. Voters had opened their brokerage statements and didn't like the trendline. And as that trendline changed, also the difference in support between the candidates changed.
My job has me speaking with people in a variety of places and yesterday, the people of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) that's >3 million people in lower Ontario, Canada had questions too. One quipped that McCain was "just like Bush" so that got the title. Although I disagree, it shows that it was a valid tactic that worked it's way into peoples minds.
Now, the iceberg concept... when politicians are on the campaign trail, they must deliver sound bites and information in small blocks. Our MTV culture wants to hear small snippets & the 22 minute news broadcast has lots to cover. Giving small bits is key. Also, these small bits must be very positive, wide reaching, and inspire some votes. Full detailed disclosure of the estimated results of a policy should not be discussed. Politicians will have their best foot forward to show their "dating side" -- what they would present to a first date they wish to impress. The deep realities under the surface, what I'm calling the iceberg, don't come out until the marriage begins--until the election is over.
Let's give some credit to Nancy Pelosi for her observations in this article. She is partially defending President-elect Obama's challenges ahead. But, she also knows that leading a large group of diverse opinions is a difficult task. Speaker Pelosi (D-California) suggests that the country must be governed from the center. She also knows that Obama faces "'more expectations than any president I can ever remember in my life time.'" She's probably right. Running a campaign of hope with many details to the issues (more icebergs) under the surface, the more extreme special interests that will come to the well to drink of government programs and dollars, and the political support in Congress and the Senate to get it done? The pressure is high.
Bill Clinton learned this early -- his first 100 days in office he pushed for the gays in the military efforts that generated a lot of strife and caused a lot of dissent ion. Obama won California with around 58% of the vote. California was leaning toward banning gay marriage however in the Proposition 8 ballot question to amend the California constitution. Some absentee ballot counting continues. The ballot question basically asks for a referendum to decide if the California Supreme Court got it wrong when they supported gay marriage earlier in 2008. President-elect Obama seems to support civil unions but not necessarily marriage for gay couples. Speaker Pelosi disagrees with the Proposition (thus permitting gay marriage). Wikipedia reports that all 10 major newspapers editorialized against Proposition 8, thus supporting gay marriage. Insert your own joke (or ardent defense) about potential media bias here.
Just using California as an example -- America will give Obama four years to show his skills and work to bring solutions about that he highlighted in his speeches. Votes from less likely Republican areas showed this. The mainstream swing voters largely gave him support. But even more liberal America (in California) is not ready to embrace the leftist special interests to a dramatic effect. Obama will be wise to discern these two, and make important gains where he can for the larger good.
The primary reason is the economy. Exit polling suggested 63% had the economy as their highest concern. Sure, the war in Iraq is making huge progress (due to the surge of troops most likely. I doubt the insurrectionists have totally given up; history shows they'll fight decades if needed for an issue). So, Iraq is not a headline -- the media has removed it from their talking points. Anne Kornblut I believe got it right in her Washingon Post article here Measured Response to Financial Crisis Sealed the Election. Ms. Kornblut highlights that as candidate Obama met with his team Sept 14th looking for more ideas, the race was tight. The next morning, Lehman Brothers (LEH), filed for bankruptcy. The S&P 500 index was down about 12% at that point on the year (to the previous Friday, September 12th). Suddenly, the S&P fell apart (along with near all other equities) and went down another 22% from Sept 15 to November 3. It was up from a few days before when it did reach a point of -33% from Sept 15 to Oct 27.
The economy was a great concern on election day. Painting John McCain as one that would contribute George Bush's policies was good enough. Voters had opened their brokerage statements and didn't like the trendline. And as that trendline changed, also the difference in support between the candidates changed.
My job has me speaking with people in a variety of places and yesterday, the people of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) that's >3 million people in lower Ontario, Canada had questions too. One quipped that McCain was "just like Bush" so that got the title. Although I disagree, it shows that it was a valid tactic that worked it's way into peoples minds.
Now, the iceberg concept... when politicians are on the campaign trail, they must deliver sound bites and information in small blocks. Our MTV culture wants to hear small snippets & the 22 minute news broadcast has lots to cover. Giving small bits is key. Also, these small bits must be very positive, wide reaching, and inspire some votes. Full detailed disclosure of the estimated results of a policy should not be discussed. Politicians will have their best foot forward to show their "dating side" -- what they would present to a first date they wish to impress. The deep realities under the surface, what I'm calling the iceberg, don't come out until the marriage begins--until the election is over.
Let's give some credit to Nancy Pelosi for her observations in this article. She is partially defending President-elect Obama's challenges ahead. But, she also knows that leading a large group of diverse opinions is a difficult task. Speaker Pelosi (D-California) suggests that the country must be governed from the center. She also knows that Obama faces "'more expectations than any president I can ever remember in my life time.'" She's probably right. Running a campaign of hope with many details to the issues (more icebergs) under the surface, the more extreme special interests that will come to the well to drink of government programs and dollars, and the political support in Congress and the Senate to get it done? The pressure is high.
Bill Clinton learned this early -- his first 100 days in office he pushed for the gays in the military efforts that generated a lot of strife and caused a lot of dissent ion. Obama won California with around 58% of the vote. California was leaning toward banning gay marriage however in the Proposition 8 ballot question to amend the California constitution. Some absentee ballot counting continues. The ballot question basically asks for a referendum to decide if the California Supreme Court got it wrong when they supported gay marriage earlier in 2008. President-elect Obama seems to support civil unions but not necessarily marriage for gay couples. Speaker Pelosi disagrees with the Proposition (thus permitting gay marriage). Wikipedia reports that all 10 major newspapers editorialized against Proposition 8, thus supporting gay marriage. Insert your own joke (or ardent defense) about potential media bias here.
Just using California as an example -- America will give Obama four years to show his skills and work to bring solutions about that he highlighted in his speeches. Votes from less likely Republican areas showed this. The mainstream swing voters largely gave him support. But even more liberal America (in California) is not ready to embrace the leftist special interests to a dramatic effect. Obama will be wise to discern these two, and make important gains where he can for the larger good.
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