"Just Like Bush"

This phrase was mentioned to me a couple times as the reason why President-elect Obama reached that status on November 5, 2008. I don't think that's really the reason, but it's partially in the back of many voters minds as they went to the polls to cast their ballots. I also don't know that voters consider what I'm going to call the 'Campaign Iceberg Effect' -- and this has nothing to do with governors from Alaska.

The primary reason is the economy. Exit polling suggested 63% had the economy as their highest concern. Sure, the war in Iraq is making huge progress (due to the surge of troops most likely. I doubt the insurrectionists have totally given up; history shows they'll fight decades if needed for an issue). So, Iraq is not a headline -- the media has removed it from their talking points. Anne Kornblut I believe got it right in her Washingon Post article here Measured Response to Financial Crisis Sealed the Election. Ms. Kornblut highlights that as candidate Obama met with his team Sept 14th looking for more ideas, the race was tight. The next morning, Lehman Brothers (LEH), filed for bankruptcy. The S&P 500 index was down about 12% at that point on the year (to the previous Friday, September 12th). Suddenly, the S&P fell apart (along with near all other equities) and went down another 22% from Sept 15 to November 3. It was up from a few days before when it did reach a point of -33% from Sept 15 to Oct 27.

The economy was a great concern on election day. Painting John McCain as one that would contribute George Bush's policies was good enough. Voters had opened their brokerage statements and didn't like the trendline. And as that trendline changed, also the difference in support between the candidates changed.

My job has me speaking with people in a variety of places and yesterday, the people of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) that's >3 million people in lower Ontario, Canada had questions too. One quipped that McCain was "just like Bush" so that got the title. Although I disagree, it shows that it was a valid tactic that worked it's way into peoples minds.

Now, the iceberg concept... when politicians are on the campaign trail, they must deliver sound bites and information in small blocks. Our MTV culture wants to hear small snippets & the 22 minute news broadcast has lots to cover. Giving small bits is key. Also, these small bits must be very positive, wide reaching, and inspire some votes. Full detailed disclosure of the estimated results of a policy should not be discussed. Politicians will have their best foot forward to show their "dating side" -- what they would present to a first date they wish to impress. The deep realities under the surface, what I'm calling the iceberg, don't come out until the marriage begins--until the election is over.

Let's give some credit to Nancy Pelosi for her observations in this article. She is partially defending President-elect Obama's challenges ahead. But, she also knows that leading a large group of diverse opinions is a difficult task. Speaker Pelosi (D-California) suggests that the country must be governed from the center. She also knows that Obama faces "'more expectations than any president I can ever remember in my life time.'" She's probably right. Running a campaign of hope with many details to the issues (more icebergs) under the surface, the more extreme special interests that will come to the well to drink of government programs and dollars, and the political support in Congress and the Senate to get it done? The pressure is high.

Bill Clinton learned this early -- his first 100 days in office he pushed for the gays in the military efforts that generated a lot of strife and caused a lot of dissent ion. Obama won California with around 58% of the vote. California was leaning toward banning gay marriage however in the Proposition 8 ballot question to amend the California constitution. Some absentee ballot counting continues. The ballot question basically asks for a referendum to decide if the California Supreme Court got it wrong when they supported gay marriage earlier in 2008. President-elect Obama seems to support civil unions but not necessarily marriage for gay couples. Speaker Pelosi disagrees with the Proposition (thus permitting gay marriage). Wikipedia reports that all 10 major newspapers editorialized against Proposition 8, thus supporting gay marriage. Insert your own joke (or ardent defense) about potential media bias here.

Just using California as an example -- America will give Obama four years to show his skills and work to bring solutions about that he highlighted in his speeches. Votes from less likely Republican areas showed this. The mainstream swing voters largely gave him support. But even more liberal America (in California) is not ready to embrace the leftist special interests to a dramatic effect. Obama will be wise to discern these two, and make important gains where he can for the larger good.